What’s Really Happening in the Bay Area Housing Market This September

The national housing market took a breather in July, but here in Silicon Valley, the story depends on where and what you are buying or selling. Nationally, prices eased after five straight months of gains, mortgage rates moved higher again, and fewer homes came to market. Locally, inventory tightened even more—but conditions varied widely among counties and between single-family homes and condos.

The takeaway? This is not one market moving in one direction. It is several markets moving at once.

Silicon Valley at a Glance

The latest Silicon Valley numbers show a market that remains active but selective:

• 1,263 active listings
• 623 homes sold
• 103% sale-to-list-price ratio
• $1.85 million median sale price
• 12 median days on market

Sales slowed from the previous month, but well-positioned homes continued to move quickly and often sold above asking.

The numbers tell part of the story. In this month’s market update, Linda explains why Silicon Valley feels so mixed—and why your neighborhood, price point, and competition matter more than the headline.

[Watch Linda’s Silicon Valley Market Update →]

The Big Story: Prices Paused, but Affordability Is Still Tight

After climbing steadily through the spring, the national median sale price declined modestly in July.

• Median sale price: $434,100
• Change from June: Down 1.96%
• Change from last July: Up 1.97%
• Increase from January’s low: Approximately 9.9%

A midsummer dip is not unusual. The bigger issue for buyers remains the relationship between home prices, mortgage rates, and monthly payments.

The average 30-year mortgage rate eased to 6.43% in July before rising to 6.69% in August. July’s estimated monthly principal-and-interest payment was $2,254—almost identical to the payment one year earlier.

For buyers, the most important number is not simply the price or the rate. It is how the two work together to shape the monthly payment.

Fewer Homes Are Coming to Market

National housing supply also moved lower in July:

• Homes available: 1.54 million
• Monthly inventory change: Down 1.91%
• New listings: Down 8.58% from June
• Existing-home sales: 4.06 million annualized

Some of that decline is seasonal, since listing activity typically peaks during the spring. Still, fewer new listings combined with relatively steady sales means the pool of available homes may continue to thin.

Nationally, buyers generally have more selection than they do in Silicon Valley. But the market is not moving decisively toward either buyers or sellers. Supply is tightening while affordability continues to limit demand.

The Local Story: One Region, Several Markets

Silicon Valley’s July numbers show why national headlines only tell part of the story.

Single-Family Median Prices

• San Mateo County: $2.123 million, up 10.57% year over year
• Santa Clara County: $1.9 million, up 1.06% year over year
• Santa Cruz County: $1.375 million, down 1.47% year over year

San Mateo County continued to command a Peninsula premium. Santa Clara County showed signs of leveling after reaching $2.05 million in May, while Santa Cruz County remained more variable from month to month.

Limited Inventory Is Still Supporting Single-Family Homes

Across San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz Counties, only 1,849 single-family homes were available in July.

• Inventory declined 22.18% from last July
• Inventory declined another 5.28% from June
• New listings fell 4.59% year over year
• Closed sales remained nearly unchanged from last year

Buyers are still purchasing homes, but sellers are bringing fewer properties to market. That imbalance continues to support desirable, well-prepared single-family homes—even as buyers become more selective.

Low inventory helps sellers, but it does not guarantee that every home will sell quickly. Pricing, preparation, presentation, and location still matter.

Houses and Condos Are Telling Different Stories

Single-family homes in San Mateo and Santa Clara Counties continued to move quickly, averaging 14 days on market in July. Santa Cruz County single-family homes averaged 25 days.

Condos generally required more patience:

• San Mateo County: 42 days
• Santa Clara County: 32 days
• Santa Cruz County: 70 days

This distinction matters. A strategy that works for a single-family home may not work for a condo—even within the same city.

Condo sellers may need a longer runway and sharper pricing from the beginning. Condo buyers, meanwhile, may have more time to compare properties, review disclosures, and negotiate.

Where Do Buyers and Sellers Have the Advantage?

Months of supply makes the difference especially clear.

Single-Family Homes

• San Mateo County: 1.2 months
• Santa Clara County: 1.6 months
• Santa Cruz County: 3.4 months

Condos

• San Mateo County: 2.9 months
• Santa Clara County: 4.1 months
• Santa Cruz County: 4.1 months

Single-family conditions remain firmly seller-favored in San Mateo and Santa Clara Counties. Santa Cruz County is closer to balance.

Condo buyers—especially in Santa Clara and Santa Cruz Counties—are more likely to find additional choices, longer decision windows, and greater negotiating room.

What This Means for Buyers

• Be prepared to move decisively on a well-priced single-family home.
• Look beyond the headline mortgage rate and evaluate the complete monthly payment.
• Let the neighborhood, price range, and property type guide your offer strategy.
• Consider condos if you want more choices and potential negotiating room.
• Do not assume that a quieter overall market means the best homes will sit.

What This Means for Sellers

• Low inventory is helpful, but it is not a guarantee.
• Price correctly from the beginning rather than relying on future reductions.
• Preparation and presentation help a home stand out to selective buyers.
• Condo sellers may need a longer marketing timeline.
• Build the strategy around your specific property—not just a countywide statistic.

Market statistics reflect the reporting periods described above. Conditions may vary by city, neighborhood, price range, property type, and individual property. Sources: National Association of Realtors®, Freddie Mac, and San Francisco MLS/InfoSparks®. Data is considered reliable but is not guaranteed.