April '25 Market Update

THE BIG STORY

Quick Take:

Mortgage rates have ticked up slightly over the course of the past year, and coincidentally, so has the median sale price of a home in the US.
According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year mortgage rate is 6.62%, as of April 10th.
Although affordability remains an issue throughout the country, the median monthly P&I payment has declined by over $100 on a year-over-year basis, representing a considerable savings for consumers!
We are seeing the trend of more new listings hitting the market continue, as we saw roughly 10% more new listings added in March when compared to a year ago.

HOME SALES ARE ROUGHLY STAGNANT COMPARED LAST YEAR

📉 Sales Slightly Down, But Inventory Up

February 2025 saw a modest dip in home sales compared to last year (4.26M vs. 4.38M), but inventory has grown—1.24M homes on the market this February vs. 1.06M a year ago. More inventory = more options for buyers.

🏘️ Power Shift Toward Buyers?

With 10% more new listings added in March 2025 compared to March 2024, we may be seeing the early signs of a market shift toward buyers. Listings may start sitting longer, giving buyers more negotiating room.

💸 Sellers Adjusting to Rate Reality

Sellers appear to be coming to terms with the fact that significantly lower mortgage rates may not return anytime soon. Many are choosing to list now rather than wait it out.

📉 Payments Down Despite Rising Rates

Interestingly, median monthly mortgage payments fell by nearly 5%, even as prices and rates rose slightly. This likely reflects homeowners who locked in higher rates in late 2023 and recently refinanced into lower rates, freeing up an extra ~$100/month in household budgets.

🏦 Fed Holds Steady

The Federal Reserve is maintaining current interest rates, signaling no major cuts are on the horizon. They're also continuing to offload mortgage-backed securities gradually.

THE LOCAL LOWDOWN

Quick Take:

Housing markets across the Bay Area show mixed signals, with single-family homes outperforming condos in most regions.
Inventory trends vary significantly by region, with Silicon Valley seeing increases while San Francisco continues to struggle with low supply.
Single-family homes in most Bay Area regions remain in a seller's market, while the condo market generally favors buyers with higher months of supply inventory.
Days on market vary dramatically across the Bay Area, from just 8-16 days in Silicon Valley to significantly longer timeframes in other regions.